نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال سی‌ام شماره 3 (پیاپی 118، پاییز 1398)

The purpose of this research is to design a good governance model in Tehran municipality. The present study is developmental in terms of purpose and descriptive-exploratory in terms of method. Interview tools were used to collect qualitative data. The target population in this study is managers and officials of Tehran municipalities. The sampling method in this study is snowball and purposeful. Grounded theory strategy with Strauss and Corbin approach was used to design the network governance model in Tehran municipality. Based on the results of open and pivotal coding, causal factors affecting good governance in municipalities have shown that civil society factors, political stakeholders and guidelines of upstream institutions, environmental change, strategic factors, managerial and institutional factors, including causal factors On the pattern of good governance in municipalities. Also, organizational flexibility, organizational resource capacities, legal support for good governance, and effective human resource management are the necessary infrastructure for good governance in municipalities. Legal and legal barriers, process barriers in the organization, and management weaknesses are factors that interfere with good governance in municipalities. Network governance strategies are categorized as developing educational capacity, enhancing economic capacity, strengthening effective communication with civil society, and increasing organizational agility. The consequences of good governance in municipalities are also the development of partnerships, improved municipal performance and sustainable urban development.

The methodology of Futures studies is weak because of its novelty, innovation and interdisciplinary character (influenced by other disciplines), and its multidisciplinary biology has led to a lack of proper coherence in its methodology. Futures studies researcher has many problems in selecting and evaluating methods appropriate to his research. Because of this serious weakness, research has been carried out to identify and introduce criteria for selecting and evaluating methods whose results are of great use to future studies researchers. However, because of the scope of these studies and the lack of a comprehensive look at them, the studies themselves have become plagued by confusion and confusion. In this study, it has been attempted to summarize the methodological indicators available in other researches and finally, with the help of experts, suggest indicators for future studies methods. The main method used in this study was library study, cross-sectional and expert interviews (in the form of questionnaires and open interviews). At the end, the methodology indicators of futures studies were extracted from different perspectives (methodological indicators, method selection indicators, indicators related to the issues facing the methods, and requirements for futures methodology requirements) and after thirteen questions, Indicators based on ratings have been introduced as the main indicators of evaluation and selection of future studies researchers in their research.

This article aims to design a model for corporate foresight capability and its impacts on organizational performance in the banking industry of Iran. In this research, first, the review of literature on corporate foresight from the process and content perspectives is presented, and then we have examined and analyzed the components and dimensions of corporate foresight. Corporate foresight is an ability that includes any structural or cultural element that enables the company to detect discontinuous change early, interpret the consequences for the company, and formulate effective responses to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company. The research is of practical purpose and research method is a mixed method and is cross-sectional in time. The data collection tool has been collected and analyzed in the qualitative part including library and Delphi methods from academic and industry experts (15 experts)  and in the quantitative part using questionnaire, the data research were collected and analyzed from the banking industry of Iran including 30 banks (Commercial Government banks, Specialized Government banks, Gharzolhasaneh and Non-Government Banks). . The validity of the model is verified by structural equation modeling. The results show that we can examine and promote the corporate foresight using the components of proposed measurement model. The ratings Corporate Foresight components in Iranian banking industry are also investigated. The results showed that corporate foresight affect organizational performance.

There are factors in any system that may act contrary to system order, causing disorder, disrupting behavior, disrupting system stability or entropy, and will significantly reduce employee and organization performance. To explain behavioral entropy and identify the dimensions, indices, and the relationship between them, and finally to present a behavioral entropy model. The research method was exploratory and the data analysis method was mixed (qualitative and quantitative). The qualitative part of the Delphi method consisted of 20 experts including 10 human resources professors and 10 extension managers. Snowball method was used to select both groups. At first, using a qualitative approach, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts in the conceptual model of research and then to test the model from each of the standard questionnaires, a questionnaire with validity and reliability of 0.814 and 0.74 was set up and in a statistical population of about 1000 managers and 470 staff managers. The Iranian industries were distributed by random stratified method and 441 questionnaires were obtained using quantitative research methods and structural equations of Venice using SPSS and LISREL software. In the qualitative section, 81 components were identified which, according to Kendall's coefficient of 0.811 after four Delphi panel formats, remained 15 components, including three behavioral entropy dimensions triplicates including three individual, organizational and environmental categories. In section: The influence of independent environmental and organizational factors on individual factors mediated by 0.788 and 0.715, respectively, and the effect of environmental and organizational structures on behavioral entropy dependent constructs is greater than the critical values of 1.96 and 2.58, respectively. Direct and meaningful support. The findings indicate that organizational and environmental factors influence individual factors and individual factors have a faster and longer lasting effect on behavioral entropy retention. The implications of behavioral entropy for each of the variables are summarized as disorder, confusion, an atmosphere of instability, abnormal behaviors, reduced productivity, and organization.

Power plant industries are among the mother industries that research and development with the forward-looking perspective are crucial in which due to the rapid changes in technology. On the other hand, part of R&D is done within the supply chain of these industries. Finally, the power plant products success is strongly dependent on existing and future successful R&D collaborations in the supply chain. Mapna Group, as a manufacturer of power plant products, needs to develop research and development collaboration in its supply chain with a forward-looking approach in order to gain competitive advantage and to be present in the global markets. Since no research has been done in this regard, the purpose of this study is to identify the factors influencing the success of R&D collaborations in MAPNA Group Supply Chain. This research is a descriptive survey in terms of method, and is applied in terms of purpose. Factors affecting the R&D collaborations in the supply chain are extracted from overviewing the literature and the supply chain experts' viewpoints, and the questionnaire approved by the MAPNA Group’s Experts was distributed and results were analyzed by the confirmatory factor analysis with structural equations and PLS software. In this study, 8 key success factors in R&D collaboration were identified and wereconfirmed together with 25 indicators. According to the Network Analysis Process (ANP), the first priority is the integrated supply chain leadership, the second priority is the technology intelligence, and the next priorities respectively are the partner specificity factors, suppliers management, financial management, research and development management, legal obligations and IT management.

Supply chain management is considered one of the most important pillars of today's businesses, and a large portion of the cost of any manufacturing and service organization is spent in this cycle.One of the most important components of the efficiency of each supply chain is the availability of an optimal transportation system. The mathematical approach governing the modeling and optimization of this transportation system is the Vehicle Routing Problem Approach. In this paper, with the aim of minimizing supply chain costs and maximizing customer satisfaction, modeling, solving and verifying the distribution system in a bi-level closed loop supply chain with uncertain variables has been undertaken.Here, due to the uncertainty of the modeling variables, and that the optimal answer can be any vector combination of the studied graph nodes, the problem is classified in terms of the degree of complexity of the NP-hard issues and its optimal solution through methods Classical mathematical programming is not possible.In this study, a metaheuristic fire-fly algorithm used to solve the problem. In this regard, the main variables and parameters included in the model are the number, speed, capacity, average loaded and distance traveled,and the number, Geographical distribution, the amount of goods requested and returned of retailers. In order to investigate the validity of the obtained response, we also modeling and solving of 3 scenarios and comparing the results with a random method(current method in distribution company), which shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

There is no doubt that the future environment of meta complex higher education system and organizations, the strategic environment, and one of the ways in which people in leadership success turning into their environment with a special look to dominate another through personal and its restraint in archaeology with the goal of future use, preventing entropy and syntropy for Educated gun and the collective efficacy of the, the Community system of higher education graduates will be in the future. The aim of this study was to identify and determine the validity of the content of personal mastery and its dimensions on the graduate students of universities and centers of higher education from the perspective of experts. This applied research, exploratory and qualitative. Participants in this research is targeted in the first part of 7 people with Delphi technique, and in the second part of the 22 people, Certified masters of the Harvard, Florida, Kharizmi and Sciences and Research Universities The academic level of associate with the criteria above and specialized books. There are two types of The closed questionnaire responses and Open questionnaire answers in the data analysis of the method of frequency analysis, CVR and CVI, was using. The findings show the consensus of the universities on the concept of personal Mastery and identification of its main dimensions: Forgiveness, Know Yourself, Love Yourself, Maintain a Positive Mindset, Practice Discipline, Be Proactive, The beliefs of Self-Regulations, and Develop writ and live your purpose statement, in university graduate students.

The diversity in governance practices around the world is a reflection of differences in the political, social, economic and cultural histories of countries. There is common recognition, however, that financial governance at social security organizations is aimed at delivering what is mandated and ensuring that what is delivered is responsive to the evolving needs of the individual and society. The purpose of this paper is to propose a financial governance pattern, focusing on IRAN social security organization.

Data were collected via semi structured in-depth interviews. We interviewed with 27 Participants were selected from IRAN social security organization. Data were analyzed using the Corbin and Strauss (2008) approach. We interviewed with 7 participants for preparing the research pattern ultimately.

Concepts of study were identified using a micro and general analysis. The 'responsibility' was identified as a main concern. Other categories identified in this study are ‘Contributions’, ‘Actuary’, ‘Financial sustainability’, ‘Monitoring & Measurement’, ‘Integrity’, ‘Capacity Building’, ‘Culture & Communication’, ‘prudence’, ‘Role of the rule’, ‘Sufficiency’, ‘Technology’, ‘Risk and investment management’, ‘Transparency and Government interventions’.

The main objective of this research is to analyze the criteria for improving electronic learning services based on cloud computing using the Diemel technique. The statistical population of the study is the managers and experts of the field of information technology in universities. The tool is a questionnaire. 21 questionnaires were distributed among experts of the field of information technology of universities. Finally, 21 questionnaires were collected and to answer the research questions and information analyzes Dimetel method was used. By analyzing the research criteria using Dimetal's technique, it was found that among 11 criteria, the criteria of organizational factors with the highest total of lines among other criteria in the way of choosing the components of e-learning improvement has the most impact on other elements and The most weight factor in the whole system. In other words, the most important criterion has the greatest impact on the whole system. And the educational content with the least sum of the line has the least impact on other elements. The results of this research can be applied to companies and educational institutions active in the field of cloud computing and researchers in the field.

In today's competitive world, the ability to recognize predict customer demand is an important issue for the success of organizations. And since ATMs are one of the most important channels for cash distribution and one of the most fundamental criteria for assessing the level of service to banks,In this paper, the number of referrers to ATM devices is reviewed based on the timing and location of the devices. This article seeks to find a dynamic and functional model for predicting the number of referrers to each ATM depending on the time and location of the device. Hence, 378 ATM machines were used throughout the city of Tehran for a time period of one month, containing 69,418 records. Finally, with the help of clustering of statistical data in spatial and temporal dimensions, this model finally succeeds in learning the pattern in the macro data, and based on the decision tree, the predictor can predict the number of referents to each device, which after the algorithm is presented. In order to improve the quality of banking services and improve the performance of the ATM network, it is proposed to combine the optimal location of ATMs in spatial and temporal dimensions.

A new matter that arises in term of the dynamic behavior of customers is considering the customer segmentation. Based on the banks competitions to increase market share as well as the psychological and environmental factors the dynamics of customers’ behavior should be considered over time. Transferring customers to different sectors over time and discovering the dominant models in their displacements between sectors are of important topics in this context.

this article aims to identify the behavioral clusters, the dominant patterns of displacement, and the leading characteristics and patterns of customer displacements with a focus on the customer dynamics behavior of Ansar banks. Design/

A Hybrid method based on clustering and association rules has been proposed.

four different behavioral group of customer are identified:" low-value customers with sustainable model", "low-value customer with unsustainable profitability model", "turned away customers with average profitability", "loyal customers with low profitability". Relations between of these groups are analyzed by association rules

The purpose of this research is to design and explain a model of impulse buying behavior in Iran. To achieve this goal, two qualitative and quantitative approaches have been used. In the qualitative stage, with the review of existing works, open interviews and content analysis techniques, four dimensions have been identified: cultural values, personalities, positions, and cognitive-emotional aspects of the buyer and In the quantitative stage, a sample of 3,168 shoppers from different cultures (Persian, Azeri, Kurdish, Lori, Arabic, Baluchi, Turkmen, Qashqai, Gilaki and Mazandaran) are sampled by cluster sampling Then, they were extracted by random sampling method and analyzed by factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling.The results of the study show that by recognizing the cultural values, personality, situations and the cognitive-affective of the buyers, can manage the buyer's impulse buying behavior and on the other hand, helps buyers and consumers to find out Under what conditions they buy impulsively, as well as the cultural values of buyers, have a special role in the impulse buying.

This research is conducted with the aim of providing a Development Model of the Empowerment of Graduated Students of the Islamic Azad University, Considering the Fundamental Changes in the Higher Education System in the Future. The statistical population of this study consist of 200 PhD and Master Students of the Islamic Azad University of Tehran which were selected by random sampling according to Morgan table. The data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire in which expert’s opinions were used to formalize the questionnaire. And the reliability of the questionnaires was also assessed by using Cronbach’s alpha test. Data analysis were accomplished by the inferential statistics such as t-test, Spss, PLS and quantitative approach. The research method is survey. Based on the theoretical foundations, students' abilities were examined with a combination of four approaches (communication, cognitive, structural, motivational) and combination of two models (Spritz and Kettel, Horn, Kroll), two-dimensional managerial and educational with 12 components. The results of the study indicate that the graduated students of the Islamic Azad University are in the lower level in Managerial and Educational Capabilities. The development of managerial and Educational capabilities based on the presented model can improve the critical thoughts and critical micro-thoughts and meta-cognitive development in graduated students and faculty members which are the university challenge.

Given the role of entrepreneurship in the economic development, many studies have been conducted on this field in recent years. The role of institutional environment in the implementation of entrepreneurial activities is an important issue in the field of entrepreneurship. A great number of previous studies have investigated roles of formal institutional factors in the entrepreneurship phenomenon. Therefore, due to the importance of an informal institutional environment, the present research investigated roles of informal institutions in implementing entrepreneurial activities and the creation of opportunistic entrepreneurship by an institutional approach according to North's point of view and also studied informal institutional factors affecting opportunistic entrepreneurship activities in two categories namely social norms and individual self-confidence through data of Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) using the generalized method of moment (GMM) for sixty countries in two developed and developing groups during 2009-2017. Research results indicated that the creation of opportunistic entrepreneurial activities significantly depends on the qualitative status of informal institutions. Therefore, these informal institutional factors should be considered alongside formal institutional factors in the entrepreneurial research and also designed programs for developing opportunistic entrepreneurship at the national level.

this study aims to investigate the relationship between group cohesion and conflict types (Task Conflict, Relational Conflict) and the effectiveness of football teams in the Iran's premier league clubs. The research method was descriptive (correlation), both field and library. The statistical population includes all the players and coaches of 16 teams competing in the 16th Premier League Football Championship in 2017. To collect data, Widmeyer's Group Coherency Inventory (1985), Jehn’s Conflict Types Questionnaire (1997) and Wang's Team Effectiveness Questionnaire (2000) were used. The results were obtained using structural equation modelling and partial least squares method. The results showed a positively significant relationship between task conflict and relational conflict and team’s effectiveness in the Iran's premier league clubs. Also, both task conflict and relational conflict had negative impact on team’s effectiveness. There is also a positive and significant relationship between teamwork coherence and teamwork effectiveness from the viewpoints of players and coaches.